Three Fatal Mistakes For Bookmakers

April 15th, 2009

Yes. Fatal. I tell not about your physical death. I tell about your financial death. Your death as professional player.

Fatal mistake № 1

It is good time to relax after the unsuccessfully rate. Take a walk. Return. Look at statistics. Work above mistakes. Even to miss one or two round of a championship.

But not! You find out, that your rate was gone. You are broken from a place and run to bookmaker. Do the new rate. And again lose.

The circle has become isolated. It is too difficult to escape from it. It is much easier to lose all. Therefore, as though you would like to recoup, forbid to itself to do the following rate after a loss. Wait any time.

Fatal mistake № 2

You win or lose. It is not important now. It’s important that you are in authority of emotions. Your rational part falls now strong asleep. And you should stay far from bookmaker.

Why bookmakers of all world like to accept rates in bars? Alcohol? No. People are relaxed here and they are more emotional. They were not yet too drunk but they are ready to do the mad bettings

Fatal mistake № 3

Are you the fan? I am. I am the football fan. My favourite team is Arsenal. Shall I bet on games with its participation? I think not. I love this team too much.

When we speak about the favourite team, our emotions gradually switch off our reason. And we cannot really estimate forces of a team any more.

So it is better to miss all these games. Especially if the team plays with the strong contender or if depends too much on that game. It is too simply to give out desirable for valid. And to pay for it.

Do the bettings. Study teams. Avoid these mistakes. And so – nothing threatens to your life, life of a professional player.
Successful game to you!
Football Betting

Six Tips for Football Forecasting

April 14th, 2009

We can reason for a long time, what kind of sports is easier for predicting. Well, probably only the man who has played many many times can answer this question univocally. And - on a high level… I do not think, that there is a lot of such people. But here is my opinion:

First

Individual kinds of sports are easier than command ones. I think it is evident. The amount of the factors which need to be taken into account is increased. One business is to foreknow a psychological condition and game tonus of one player, and absolutely another - to try to do the same with a team consisting from over 10 men. You agree with me?

Second.

Complexity of forecasting is back proportional to total amount of points or goals played in a match (such named total). For example: Basketball is easier than football. There is the following motivation there: at increase of totals the influence of accidents and luckiness decreases. There are many examples here. Unfairly cancelled goal in football influences final result much more than let throw in basketball or false out in tennis. In football are such occasions frequent: one team wins completely but the final result is not good for it. But in basketball there such cases are not so frequent thanks to a difference in totals.

So I think that tennis is easier for forecasting by all kinds of sports, and most complex is football.

Difficult but possible

Now let’s speak concretely about the rates on football. I shall repeat once again, that all here written is my personal opinion only.

There are two kinds of the analysis of football matches for me: game and betting. Game: all connected directly to the game: structures, trauma, disqualification, motivation, current game form etc. Betting: all introduced in game by the world of the rates, in the basic analysis of statistics. It is impossible to make out precise border between these kinds, since they are rather closely connected, therefore analysis of a match should contain all these components. However, there is no time or information often for the complete analysis. I.e. it is necessary to understand, that bookmaker has advantage obviously.

Now some words about how to do without the complete analysis. So each championship, and even each separate league represent some kind of separate kind of sports with its features and laws. So it is too difficult for one man to predict qualitatively more than 4-5 leagues. But majority presented here are extremists. They would like to have all and at once, therefore such cases are frequent, when the man simultaneously bets on almost on all worldwide football (I would tell, that these cases make 99 % from 100). So further written will be useful basically for them, since the man, which has enough endurance to play only two - three championships obviously surpasses me in theoretical preparation and hardly will gather something new.

The tournament analysis.

As I already wrote above, all championships are different, but the part of the analysis is uniform for all championships. It is so called tournament analysis. I shall try to decipher this concept. The tournament analysis is an analysis not of concrete game but of all tournament. You should know exactly which team is on rise at that moment, and which on recession. You must have the information on tournament tasks of teams, about seriation, density of a calendar, about quality of game of each team. Such analysis requires a good knowledge of a championship. It is necessary not only consideration of a situation before games, but also analysis of past games, and study of a championship even in intergame intervals. Basically it is possible to give the very qualitative forecasts with such analysis. Such analysis is rather labour-consuming and takes away much time, but already at an output of the earliest lines it becomes clear, what matches deserve attention. At the given stage any capable man having access to the Internet and to public telechannels has enough information and time to cover by such analysis championships of a big five (England, Germany, Italy, Spain and France), but it is possible by virtue of the subjective reasons to analyze only Germany Italy and partially Spain. Such analysis is especially vantage by comparison of quality of game and statistics of teams. Often there are cases, when a team, having ceased to demonstrate normal football, some time collects as though on inertia points (and on the contrary). Then appear series of matches, when exposed of bookmaker favorite is wrong. A good example to this is Malaga, 2004. Moreover, it is possible to predict downers and rises even up to their beginning, but the knowledge of a championship for this purpose is required absolutely deep. For example, the young teams will carry out the beginning of a championship more strongly, elder the ending. Frequently one team is deduced on peak of the form to any competition etc.)

The analysis before games.

In a general view this analysis represents viewing of the review containing the description of last match, list of absents and team news. If they have several such reviews – healthy. This type of the analysis also requires quite good knowledge of a championship. For example the list of absents helps you to understand how the shortage of these players will affect a team, for this purpose it is necessary to know several conducting players of a team and their position. I.e. the phrase ” team X has 9 suspended players ” not always can be manual to action. Besides, sometimes absence of the players gives positive effect to a team. We can make such analysis for championships of Belgium, Turkey, Italy and Greece.

The analysis of the form.

Classical example of the given analysis are lowest divisions of England. England is an interesting country in general: there are huge amount of clubs and huge amount of the players. The difference in a class is almost always insignificant, therefore various lists of absents and team news help usually poorly. But on the foreground comes the general game form of a team. It is usually main factor in game of practically equal contenders. Therefore it is necessary to visit fans forums of teams and to look the review (or even statistics) of last games of teams. Moreover, it is very probable that the blunt “blowing” of outsiders valid besides of small difference in a class gives the not too large minus.

The analysis of bookmakers.

I think, should be to convince, that local bookmakers forecast a forthcoming match very good forecast local bookmakers, therefore, if there is such opportunity, be not too lazy, look their line.
Football Betting